I’ve mentioned that Hang Seng Futures (HK) is likely to break below Diff S/L (19322) and sell down based on the chart formation.
Well… I was wrong. SHUCKS!!!
CK bei zhun (Hokkien: Not accurate) Waste my time reading the blog… (#@&$(… blah blah blah
But does it really matter??? Cos I’m not losing money right? Once again, Diff Technique (part of KH techniques) can’t tell me with 100% certainty whether the market is going to end positive or negative. I’m not God nor a Big Boy there’s no way I can control how the market moves. However, I’m just an investigator… constantly looking out for signs of Big Boy (Institution) in play…
My game plan is simple: Follow the Big Boys (aka the 10% that is consistently making $$$ in the market)… Of cos, then your next question will be “How?” Sorry to disappoint… I can only tell base on probability… unless I personally know a Big Boy myself (In that case, I will forgo all technical… If Big Boy buy, I will buy else I will sell… right?)
Why is it a better short than long?Let’s look at HK when it closed yesterday…
KH Techniques aside… Simply on the chart patterns, My risk to short is from Today’s OP price 19387 to the Day High (DH) of 21st Jul 19657. But where is my potential loss… From Today’s OP to potentially Day Low (DL) of 13th Jul right? So simply base on risk and reward, it would be more prudent to short than to long. Of cos, does it necessary means that the market will SURE to go down? Obviously not as the market has proven to us this morning.
Trading is about managing odds. We trade when the odds of winning are high but doesn’t mean that it will definitely win right. Hence, there is always a need for us to put in our stop loss. At the end of the day, price action rules. I, for one, have lost dearly trying to fight the market. Yes, Someday I do win i.e. Sell at DH, Buy at DL. Do I feel good? EXTREMELY But at the end of the day, I realise I lose more trying to outsmart the market. That’s when I realise… What is REALLY Important? To make max profit daily or to make consistent profit? Of cos it would be good to milk the market for all its worth but seriously… How many of us have the emotional tenacity and capital to do that???
Clue 1: 21st Jul closing price (CLP)
Notice that the closing on 21st July is lower than the close of 20th July despite breaking the high of 20th July? Am I right to say that the whole world knows that it is a buy when it break DH and a sell when it break DL? So why is it that the market can come down despite everyone being bullish on HK? Hmmm… Who is selling? Notice that 21st Jul ended off below its Opening Price (OP)? Am I right to say that whoever bought at the DH and Closing of 20th Jul aren’t feeling that comfortable?
Clue 2: 22th Jul CLP
When HK broke previous DH of 21st Jul but then sell down to below DL of 21st Jul, notice how fast the selling is… How many stops are triggered especially when HK did edge up higher upon opening in early trading? Sometime is not right already. Obviously there are people pressing down the market? Are they big boys manipulating the market so that HK ran today or simply investors getting frightened and therefore cutting their losses? I wouldn’t be able to tell u that. All I know is there are signals of selling and it make sense in terms of profit and loss to short
So conclusion
Yup. It a good short if it breaks Diff S/L. But too bad, it didn’t. So What do I do? Chase the market? Of cos, the beauty of KH Techniques is that it will give you an indication when the market sentiment has changed. Instead of buying at the lower band (LB) of my Uptrend (UT) KH Channel (19605), I chose to buy at 19658 (1 point above my Diff R/L) and have taken profit at 19771. Why do I take profit so fast? Didn’t CK kept saying have to let profit run? Right… But I should hold my position on my short side right? Since the odds of winning is higher on the short side than long side.
All these are covered in KH Mentoring Programme. Teaching techniques are easy… Everyone can do that… But truly understanding the psychology behind the buyers and sellers and thereby taking a calculated risk is priceless! Technique may fail but Market Psychology will not!!! Simple. Why? Cos Human Behavior doesn’t change! Therefore, market kept making the same pattern again and again regardless of time and place!
Hahaha… Guess I’ve gone a bit excited… Got to take a break now… HK needs to stay above 19605 for futher upside. Should i failed to stay above 19549 by 2 pm time, do expect more selling to come.
Cheers!
CK
Entries (RSS)