I’m pretty certain by now that those who have been faithfully following the blog are thinking what “crap” CK will be spouting… again..
He said this afternoon market is likely gonna go sideways.
He said last night that there might be profit taking… Ya right?
But none of this really came true… Oh… May be HK did sell off slightly but pls, only 100 points as compared to 400 points gain above OP?
blah… blah… blah…
I don’t really blame you…
Most traders are already disillusioned especially attending so many trading seminars, learning “sure win” technique but in reality, they are still losing money. In the end, instead of trusting on themselves that they are capable of sound decision, they decided to toss their votes for “instant guru” that will provide a “trading plan” for them…. AND hopefully… for the last time… it REALLY works…
I was once in their shoes… and once did became very reliant on my mentor, Mr Kelvin Han.
“Kel, Can buy or not? Market surging”
“Kel, I wanna cut loss… Market like not right?”
Kel… this… Kel… That… If I make $$$, I will never really bother to thank him from the bottom of my heart. But if I lose $$$, Kel will become my target board for live artillery bombardment….!!!
But seriously… In reality… Is Kel or any “Guru” 100% accurate in their prediction on a daily basis?
I’m sure you know the ans by now.
We trade only on higher odds of winning… Sad to say HK didn’t provide that level of confidence on the long side. Yes, it does hurt to miss a run… But on the hindsight, how many times I lose $$$ just because I DEFINTELY must catch all market runners?
Perhaps, this is a learning phase that all traders who aspired to be successful professional trader must go through.
My View (If you are willing to hear me out… hehehe)
1) The buying came in fierce before lunch. Any reasons? Oh… Hopes that China Mobile and Oil Giant CNOOC will be listed in China??? Errr… Is that really a very good reason for the crazy buying in the afternoon? Think about it?
2) Market is defintiely in a state of euphoria – Uncles & Aunties who never traded stocks in their lives are beginning to dump their savings into stock hoping to make a killing. Literally everyone is excited to enter into the market regardless of the fundamentals of the economy or on the stocks itself. Any slight price fall is an indication for the retailers to buy on bargain.
3) If the market is really bullish and the whole world is grabbing stocks by the dozens, my question is who is selling to them? Am I right to say if you ask any passerby to sell the stocks now since it might correct down in the near future, most likely they will give you “Ya right” look or even scold you for being “black heart”? In other words, no retailers would be wiling to sell their holdings unless they see more than 50% return on their investment. So if the retailers, in general, aren’t willing to sell at this stage in time. Really… Who is selling?
To end off… Kel shared with us something today which is very adept:
“Reflexivity is, in effect, a two-way feedback mechanism in which reality helps shape the participants’ thinking and the participants’ thinking helps shape reality in an unending process in which thinking and reality may come to approach each other but can never become identical. Knowledge implies a correspondence between statements and facts, thoughts and reality, which is not possible in this situation. The key element is the lack of correspondence, the inherent divergence, between the participants’ views and the actual state of affairs. It is this divergence, which I have called the “participant’s bias,” which provides the clue to understanding the course of events. That, in very general terms, is the gist of my theory of reflexivity.”
Note that SIMSCI, TW and HK futures are expiring end of this week
Cheers!
CK
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