Dow May Lose 10,000 Mark Once Again… kindly take note.
Posted by admin in Commodities, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Market AnalysisGood Morning Everyone,
On the 15th of June, when the the Dow crossed above the 10,300 resistance mark which I set, with such convincing note by rallying 213points to closed at 10,404, I thought that my concern and worry was proven wrong. Thus I reviewed my storyboard but the numbers on it seem pointing that there should be selling still. This make me very puzzeled but I stick to my gameplan and continued to stay on the bearish side BUT reduced my short quantity significantly.
6 days later, on the 21st of June, when the STI crossed the 2880 mark and closed at 2885, up 52points for that day… I was pretty amazed by its movement and the Dow was still holding above the 10,300 mark by closing at 10,450 the night before. But when I cross checked with the Blue Chips movement, the Currency Market, the Bonds Market, the Commodities movement with the recent economic data; I just cannot see the reason for the upside and even some of my grads are asking me why am I still so bearish in the market… Honestly, I know that, once again, I am in those position whereby I know the market is going to move in a BIG way but I cannot find any reason to prove it. I did the same type of predictions;
1. I called for a 1000points rally in late March last year on the Dow when everyone called for a sell. The Dow rallied more than 1200points from the level I called.
2. I called for another 1400pts rally in early July last year on the Dow and the Dow also did that by rallying 1500pts from the level I called.
3. In April this year, I called for a sell off from 11,000 level and that was days before the Dow collapsed 1000points on the so-called technical glitch.
In between, I made numerous calls on the Euro, Pound, Crude, Gold, HK Index, SIMSCI, NIKKEI and many more… Of course, I do have my fair share of Boo-Boos calls too. But I think overall, my macro views have been rather consistent. Nothing is 100% and I am definitely not God to be able to predict everything perfectly.
Nonetheless, when I see that the Dow cannot break above the 10, 483 level on 21st and 22nd of June, I quickly mass call for SELL on this Index as I know the selling is about to come and true enough, we saw another sell off in the Dow on negative economical numbers and Federal’s cautious view…
Here is www.cnnfn.com report
Stocks fell after reports showed a still-tough environment for the manufacturing and labor markets and one day after the Federal Reserve sounded a cautious tone on the economy.
The Fed issued a cautious growth outlook Wednesday on the back of the day’s weak May new home sales report. That left stocks mixed to lower, but the tone turned even more negative overnight, with markets in Europe falling and U.S. stocks opening weaker. “The Fed downgraded their economic outlook, which is not good for the markets,” said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds. “It tells us that the economy is losing steam and earnings are at risk.”
He said that markets are likely to be particularly volatile in July, as the second-quarter reporting period heats up, with many forecasts still too high relative to the current economic outlook.
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With that, here is my technical views of the Asian Markets today;
NIKKEI – This market must stay above 9835 today… if not, there should be further selling awaiting for it towards the 9700s level
(Currently trading at; 9760)
STI – I expect the STI to find support at 2833 today… if not, one should be expecting it to lose the 2800 psychological level.
(Currently trading at: 2847)
SIMSCI – I expect this market to test 333.5 region soon.
(Currently trading at: 337.2)
HK Future - Should see some support around 20500 level but I am looking at it to test 20200 region in the near term
(Currently trading at: 20733)
Shanghai Index – 2513 will be the first support for the next 1-2days
(Currently trading at: 2566)
Taiwan Future – 266.0 will be the first support for the next 1-2days
(Currently trading at: 268.1)
S&P Future – I mentioned a few days ago that this Index will hit 1070 which already happened this morning. I am looking at it to test 1053 in the near term
(Currently trading at: 1072)
Pound – I am looking at it to hit 1.4735 region if it cannot stay above 1.50 in the near term.
(Currently trading at: 1.4916)
US Crude – I am looking at this commodity to be affected by the recent economical data and hit US$73.50s level
(Currently trading at: 76.53)
Gold – I am looking at this precious metal to hit 1258 again.
(Currently trading at: 1243)
Hope all these levels will assist you in your short term trading direction and may everyone prosper in the markets!
Cheers!
Disclaimer applied
Kelvin Han
aka Trend Master
V3Go Originator
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