We are trading ‘LIVE’ at Raffles Place and all my graduates are LONG in SIMSCI, TWI and HK at the moment as we did our analysis on the regional markets especially on Shanghai Index this morning. And when we saw the Dow Futures trading lower by 70points on some fundamental news, we know as long as Shanghai stays above 2358 today, we know regional markets should be HEADING NORTH!
Stocks in MIND for Long today (1) Ezra – Good Long!
(2) First Res
(3) Indon Agri
(4) Kep Corp
(5) MIDAS
(6) NOL
(7) Rotary (8) Semb Marine – Good LonG!
(9) Straits Asia
(10) Swiber
There are a few things I would like to mention for today.
1. Last week, we called for a BULLISH Day amid the selling of the Dow and the Shanghai market. But surprisingly to many people who are non-V3Go trained,, the Stock Market in Singapore as predicted, turned in a good run and closed up 23pts instead. And Shanghai Index actually did a reversal; was down 50points at one stage before staging a U-Turn to close up 9pts. As mentioned, there is an interesting support around 2345-2349 therefore IF the market cannot close below this level, most likely, we are going to see Upside and indeed, its happening. Thats the POWER of V3Go System.
2. Using the our Indicators and technique, I am looking at the Hong Kong market to move higher and above 20,000 by this week. I was correct in predicting the 1000points sell down recently. And the HK market indeed plummented down from 21st of June @ 20978 to current level of 19752. Thats more than 1000points within 2 weeks! V3Go System is Damn Powerful!
If the HK market can maintain above 19780 today, I am looking at it to recover to 20300 by this week; which translate to around 500pints upside!
3. I am looking at the Dollaryen to recover in the near term as the chart formation is showing me those signals via V3Go context once again. Currently, it is trading at around 87.80 level. I am looking at it to recover above 90 mark by this 2 weeks which in turn should bring the NIKKEI back up to 9400-9500 level together.
4. For the local stocks; I am looking at these for Long Candidates today
a. Ezra
b. Indon Agri
c. Kep Corp d. Midas
e. NOL
f. Semb Marine
g. Straits Asia h. Genting at 1.14
i. Sound Global 76.5
j. Ezion 63.5
k. Noble 1.70
I have not recommended shares for sometime because all along since 3rd week of June, I have been bearish with the market on the whole and therefore I waited and waited. Finally, while everyone is getting jittery about the stock market and planning for exit.. and thats where I like to go in. This is Market Pyschology. So currently, I am sharing my grads that its time to select the shares that give us the signal for entering and I decided to share the name list with all of you and hope all of us make some good money on US Independance Day.
With that, I wrap up my morning market preview and may everyone HUAT (proper) today as usual!
The recovery in the STI was rather amazing as the market opened at 2770.12 which is Day Low of the day and rallied from the bell, to close at 2835.51, interestingly, at Day High too! For my grads, not only we chose to cover our short positions that we established since Monday but also turned long when the SIMSCI broke past the 333.5 level. Another S$400/contract was easily made from yesterday movement. Congrats to those who made.
For today, our grads will be looking at 2830 as the KEY SUPPORT for today as the Dow continued its slide to close down 96points to end at 9774, a closing not seen late 2009!
Here is the overnight US commentary;
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Stocks finished lower after a late-session retreat, as investors piled out of a downbeat quarter that ended with Wednesday’s session. The major indexes had teetered on either side of breakeven throughout the day as investors weighed a weak jobs report against an improved European bank outlook that provided earlier support.
But all three indexes turned down sharply as the session ended. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 96 points, or 1%, to finish at 9,774.02. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed down 1% at 1,030.71 and the Nasdaq (COMP) lost 1.2% to end at 2,109.24. All three indexes’ closing figures were the lowest since late 2009. Declines were broad-based, with 29 of the 30 Dow components ending lower Wednesday. Diversified manufacturer 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) managed to hold an 0.6% gain.
Wednesday’s session marked the end of the second quarter, during which the blue-chip Dow fell more than 10% on concerns about Europe’s debt and the overall global economy. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each lost 12% in the second quarter.Year-to-date, the Dow is off 7.7%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both down 9% over the first half of the year.
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So with the above, and the Euro reversing partial of its upside last night, traders are to watch 1.2188 for today.. as this level act as the support for now for the currency. Trading below it will most probably act as a catalyst for another round of selling of the financial markets. Watch the Dollaryen too as there is a strong support at 88 level. Breaking below it will bring the NIKKEI down further which in turn may bring the rest of the market down too. Shanghai next support is 2348. It closed below the 2400 level, at 2398.
Without HK presence today, I am not expecting much movement in the market and most probably we are going to see the market gapping down first and another round of bargain hunting might resume like yesterday but I doubt the strength will be that much.
By 11am, we received Skype messages and emails regarding on our persistent to close our short positions when the Dow just closed below 10,000 and lost more than 2% overnight… to V3Go Grads, we will always trade infront of the market thus that’s why we keep shorting the market recently… and today while the world decide to go short… we actually will take advantage of the abundant of sellers in the market to cover our shorts especially when the Euro (with our technique) gave us the Buy signal today.
I can only yawn whenever I see the market recently as I cannot really see much thing to do except looking at Sound Global and Genting SP for today. Sound Global although slammed down for the last 2 days but the closing at 78cents gave us the signal. We are calling for a BUY on it as long it stay above this level despite the recent selling.
For Genting SP, this is what I shared with my grads this morning;
[9:33:42 AM] 00 KH-Trend Master: Rem, i mentioned a few time before, Genting SP before it move, you just need to see the volume of it,.. it have a pattern… if by first 5-15mins, the traded volume is more than 20-30mil, usually, this stock will be in action. Overall, I am bullish on this share for the long term and I did mentioned before that if one can hold this share, hold it as i am looking at it to hit $1.35 again by around Sep 2010 after its earning report for 1st half of the year. This counter is a worthy counter to keep and hold. Cheers!
I have always been bullish on this counter and during all my previews in March to June this year, I have calling for a buy on this counter whenever it retraces. This counter in my opinion, is worth easily S$1.50 once the Q3Y10 report comes out in late Dec this year (of course, on the note there is no further financial clamity) because I understand how a casino operates and the amount of money they can TRUELY make from the machines and the tables. Just imagine, the LEVY they collected for the Government is already S$70million!!
So using simple maths, you should know, how many Singaporean have tried their luck on the tables and how many non-Singaporean have played too?
Using common TA, the support for this stock is $1.12 which I believe the BBs have taken great strength to maintain around there. If this stock do retrace on profit taking by the Dow in the near future, do take note of this level as a good level for accumulation instead. I will showcase a VIDEO on Genting within the next 1-2days. Watch out for it.
On the Future Side, I am still very bearish on this HKmarket and my stand of 1000points downside is still intact. But of course, with the World Cup probably sapping away most of the traders from the floor, it is most likely it will take awhile to happen. I am looking at this market to 20400 first. Now trading at 20680s.
But this morning, I also shared with my grads on the Euro currency movement;
[10:22:45 AM] 00 KH-Trend Master: Watch the Euro at 1.2266… if breaks, more selling is expected.
[10:23:16 AM] 00 KH-Trend Master: If Euro Sell = Dow wil most likely follow = so Asia markets may be reacting first… take note.
Lets see if my analysis will be proven right….Have a great trading day ahead!
On the 15th of June, when the the Dow crossed above the 10,300 resistance mark which I set, with such convincing note by rallying 213points to closed at 10,404, I thought that my concern and worry was proven wrong. Thus I reviewed my storyboard but the numbers on it seem pointing that there should be selling still. This make me very puzzeled but I stick to my gameplan and continued to stay on the bearish side BUT reduced my short quantity significantly.
6 days later, on the 21st of June, when the STI crossed the 2880 mark and closed at 2885, up 52points for that day… I was pretty amazed by its movement and the Dow was still holding above the 10,300 mark by closing at 10,450 the night before. But when I cross checked with the Blue Chips movement, the Currency Market, the Bonds Market, the Commodities movement with the recent economic data; I just cannot see the reason for the upside and even some of my grads are asking me why am I still so bearish in the market…Honestly, I know that, once again, I am in those position whereby I know the market is going to move in a BIG way but I cannot find any reason to prove it. I did the same type of predictions;
1. I called for a 1000points rally in late March last year on the Dow when everyone called for a sell. The Dow rallied more than 1200points from the level I called.
2. I called for another 1400pts rally in early July last year on the Dow and the Dow also did that by rallying 1500pts from the level I called.
3. In April this year, I called for a sell off from 11,000 level and that was days before the Dow collapsed 1000points on the so-called technical glitch.
In between, I made numerous calls on the Euro, Pound, Crude, Gold, HK Index, SIMSCI, NIKKEI and many more… Of course, I do have my fair share of Boo-Boos calls too. But I think overall, my macro views have been rather consistent. Nothing is 100% and I am definitely not God to be able to predict everything perfectly.
Nonetheless, when I see that the Dow cannot break above the 10, 483 level on 21st and 22nd of June, I quickly mass call for SELL on this Index as I know the selling is about to come and true enough, we saw another sell off in the Dow on negative economical numbers and Federal’s cautious view…
Stocks fell after reports showed a still-tough environment for the manufacturing and labor markets and one day after the Federal Reserve sounded a cautious tone on the economy.
The Fed issued a cautious growth outlook Wednesday on the back of the day’s weak May new home sales report. That left stocks mixed to lower, but the tone turned even more negative overnight, with markets in Europe falling and U.S. stocks opening weaker. “The Fed downgraded their economic outlook, which is not good for the markets,” said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds. “It tells us that the economy is losing steam and earnings are at risk.”
He said that markets are likely to be particularly volatile in July, as the second-quarter reporting period heats up, with many forecasts still too high relative to the current economic outlook.
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With that, here is my technical views of the Asian Markets today;
NIKKEI – This market must stay above 9835 today… if not, there should be further selling awaiting for it towards the 9700s level
(Currently trading at; 9760)
STI – I expect the STI to find support at 2833 today… if not, one should be expecting it to lose the 2800 psychological level.
(Currently trading at: 2847)
SIMSCI – I expect this market to test 333.5 region soon.
(Currently trading at: 337.2)
HK Future - Should see some support around 20500 level but I am looking at it to test 20200 region in the near term
(Currently trading at: 20733)
Shanghai Index – 2513 will be the first support for the next 1-2days
(Currently trading at: 2566)
Taiwan Future – 266.0 will be the first support for the next 1-2days
(Currently trading at: 268.1)
S&P Future – I mentioned a few days ago that this Index will hit 1070 which already happened this morning. I am looking at it to test 1053 in the near term
(Currently trading at: 1072)
Pound – I am looking at it to hit 1.4735 region if it cannot stay above 1.50 in the near term.
(Currently trading at: 1.4916)
US Crude – I am looking at this commodity to be affected by the recent economical data and hit US$73.50s level
(Currently trading at: 76.53)
Gold – I am looking at this precious metal to hit 1258 again.
(Currently trading at: 1243)
Hope all these levels will assist you in your short term trading direction and may everyone prosper in the markets!
Look at the Red Verticle Linethat I drew on the Euro and Dow Daily chart… see the interesting relationship?
Now the question is… the Euro is a 24hours market and the Dow will only open much later… I really wonder what will be the STI and HK react to the Euro movement now? Which look like it might affect the Dow later… based on their opening and closing timing. You got what I am trying to say? Look at how the Dow reversed itself last night…
I know you already got the answer…. Cool!!
If Not, then come for my Preview tonight at 6.30pm and I will share more with you… over coffee and light refreshments!! And its absolutely FREE!!
To see Portugal slamming North Korea by 7 goals in a World Cup Game was indeed amazing and I must say, most of the goals are pretty well taken and masterfully crafted by the players who seemingly have the intend to play their heart out. The Korean did pretty well to hold the match until the 2nd goal which really torn both their defence and morale down. Here are the highlights of the game.
After watching a nice goals rush, it is time back to the market.
This is what I posted to my graduates this morning on our V3Go Grads Only Skype Conference
[8:17:03 AM] 00 KH-Trend Master: today is a clear way to explain about Futures influence to the spot/cash market. Yesterday because of the Yuan news from China.. The Dow Futures rallied up 130points or the S&P then was trading much higher when the STI closed at 1705hr… But during the night, the Dow rallied and eventually closed small negative inteasd…
So to the retailers outside, they will be surprised to see how come the market actually gap down much more than the usual, for a dow that is only down -8points.. The rough calculation is that the Dow in actual fact lost more than 140points…
That will be the way the market will calculate. cheers!
[8:19:18 AM] 00 KH-Trend Master:Yesterday, i shared with some of my friends on the Euro…
I call for sell based on common chart pattern.. I am looking to short the Euro for this week.. yesterday BHP was a good indication… for today, I expect some recovery from yesterday’s selling but if it continue to fall, i will recommend shorting it further. And if this currency is to fall, most likely it will also affect the Equity Market.
So with the Euro coming off and the STI showing indication of a resistance at 2888… I am going to thread a little careful today on the Long side. But I expect the market to gap down first, go down a little before regaining composure as this market is a little too strong to go down immediately… it will take a little bit more time for it to caved into the selling.
More updates will be on the blog as the day goes by
I am soccer fan.. not fanatic yet…. so let me share something that I observe from last night game…
Another upset in the World Cup shows that “The Ball is Round” Theory must be respected. Spain lost 0-1 to Switzerland! Before the game, almost every soccer journalist were confident that Spain will win the game and the only question is how many goals… but from the screams from the neighbouring HDB blocks around me , clearly spelt the disappointment of the soccer fans who followed or bet on this game. In all honesty, I would have bet on Spain to win too but I ‘chickened out’ as I think the latter will go all out defending against the Spaniards. I sincerely hope that the big time punters (unlike me who bet $10-20) have not lost too much…
The Morale of the Story? Nothing is 100% and being confident is good but over-confident will kill if the thing that you expected turns opposite direction. And Media Journalists although are labelled as experts.. may also get it wrong too… just like our stock market analysts…
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Good Morning Everyone,
STI closed at 2846 yesterday, after hitting a high of 2857. Based on our TSC, today the Intersection Point is approximately around 2839. If the STI goes below this level, there should be some profit taking on this market. Our Indicator is indicating an Upside Sparrow Formation therefore if the Index actually gaped up later, will invite sellers in the market. So kindly take note.
The first support will be around 2821 area if the market do taper off.
The Upside potential is 2880.
My Take;
I expect the market to trade slightly higher first… then side way before dipping down towards the end.
I will be watching the NIKKEI for confirmation. If the Index goes below 10020, then I expect this market to fall below 10,000 mark by this week.
HK most likely will play catch up from what they missed and the support for today will be around 20105. The Resistance will be around 20200.
Using our TSC on the Euro; it shows that there is an amazing support on the Euro since it hit below the 1.19 level and rebounded. It have tested 1.2350 for 2 days in a row without much success and most likely it will be going into PROFIT-taking mode soon.
The Intersection Point will be around 1.2250-1.2260 for today. If the Euro breaks below this level, we could see it re-testing 1.20 level in the near term which will most likely be the catalyst to the selling in the equities market again.
Strategy:
With HK market opening later, most likely the market will be buying ahead of it first. If you want to go Long, reduce your normal trading qqty will be a good move so that you go for hit and run without getting caught.
For Short sellers, please be patient to build up this position. The market is definitely deem for some profit taking but at the moment,go slow as the general market are currently off the Bear Zone area (20%) therefore the sentiment have changed a bit. As good traders, we must know when to fire and when Not to fire, to conserve your ammo.
Wait for the support levels to break before entering.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information supplied herein, please be informed that all published information and trading ideas are purely the views and opinions of the author, and does not fully represent the views of the market.
The author cannot be held responsible for any errors or omissions.
Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the information from this site.
You got what I am trying to say? Look at how the Dow reversed itself last night…
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