Nov
01
2011
Archive for the “Forex Analysis” Category
Oct
31
2011
When Retail Cannot Hold Back And Jump Into the Market and Price Action Shows Opposite…Posted by admin in Comments and Feedback, Commodities, Events and Advertisements, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Kelvin's True Life Trading Stories, Market Analysis, Stock PickGood Morning Readers, Undeniable, on last Thursday, we received a good number of emails….and their content are… “You guys sucks! Your calls are wrong!!” “Kelvin, your calls are WAY OFF!!” “You are horribly wrong!” “I am going to go Long in the market tomorrow to prove you guys are wrong!” “ Market have broke above the MA, how can the market fall?” “Kelvin, kindly review your calls.. I think you got it terribly wrong this time..” “Kelvin, I have always follow your calls and normally do profit but this time, also because of you.. On Friday morning, I contacted 5 different brokers from different companies and asked them if YES was the answer from all 5 of them. STI rallied to 2905, up 50pts in the market while I noticed most shares especially the 2nd and 3rd liners Based on our V3Go ROC Pattern, the Negative ROC is a clear signal for all. I contacted my trading friends…. “The Time is RIPE! Another MF Global similar issue will destroy this momentum…” . . . . . . . Over the weekend, more news came from MF Global and its decision to file for bankruptcy. With only a Value of US$198million, they are holding 6.3bln worth of the European sovereignty debt. Read this article for more details…. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-30/corzine-s-mf-global-faces-pivotal-days-as-firm-considers-sale-bankruptcy.html . . . . . . . 3 months ago, MF Global just produced results that out-beat the analysts targets. Isn’t this the same story like what we are seeing from the EU Summit aftermath? Good news are reported but the not so good news will eventually hit the market after the big boys get what they want? I am looking at more selling to come into the market from today onwards as it is very clear that we are going to see I am believer that the incredible 1 week upside in the stock market was nothing but orchestrated and political motivated I am still keeping my stance that Dow may hit 13,500 by end of Dec 2011 but the EU Crisis and the meeting have If you have monitored carefully on the US data recently, other than the Unemployment Data, the rest of the figures are progressing positively nicely. Even Consumer Sentiment Index is edging nicely. Therefore I sincerely hope that the market will return to normality and rationality by doing a HEALTHY correctional pullback. Once this pull back is done, I am very sure the “genuine funds” will bring liquidities into the equities and currency market. Disclaimer applied. Best regards, Kelvin Han
Oct
31
2011
The JPY Chart That Traders May Want To Look For Reference (Disclaimer)Posted by admin in Forex Analysis, Market Analysis, V3Go Chart
Oct
31
2011
Azumi Acknowledged Intervention On YEN….. (To me… its a waste of $ and time… if you want to short … wait… )Posted by admin in Events and Advertisements, Financial News, Forex Analysis, Kelvin's True Life Trading Stories, Market AnalysisOfficial Statement: Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the government intervened in the foreign exchange market to halt the yen’s rise after the currency reached a post-war high against the dollar earlier today. Azumi spoke to reporters today in Tokyo. The yen sank 3.73 percent to 78.66 per dollar at 10:47 a.m. in Tokyo, having earlier traded as high as 75.35. To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-31/azumi-says-japan-intervened-in-the-currency-market.html) ==================================================== Good Morning Readers, We all know that there were speculated news that there could be intervention from the BOJ since last week…. especially when the YEN (JPY) broke the Low of 75.94 (traded on 19th of Aug 2011) on the 21st of Oct… the rumors spreads even stronger… but nothing happened… traders being to panic and question…. and true enough… we saw the USELESS intervention from the government this morning (in my own opinion)… To me, this is an absolutely WASTE of MONEY and Time… History have proven it clearly… they are just removing the hard earn money of the people and government and giving it freely to the hungry, blood thirsty FOREX speculators… Back on the 4th of August 20011, the same thing happened and the YEN was forced to rally more 221pts or 2.87% in a single day. But within 10 trading days… everything was given back… Back in April 2011 after the Earthquake.. the same thing happened but of course, back then, the rally lasted a bit longer… but came to a point of non effect… In the history of the YEN, this intervention move from the Governments, whether official or non official have been way to many as we saw the YEN slided from 130 to current 76…. over the last many years… Each time the intervention comes in… traders will move away from the market temporary… but in less than 2 weeks average… the gains will all be gone… FOREX Speculators are making meals after meals on this move as the fundamental of the Japan saving and monetary policy is way too appealing for the carry trade traders. The YEN is just too safe a heven to miss out… and such an intervention will really provide the liquidity to them. This morning, when it was trading up to 77.90… from the Day low of 75.57… many friends of mine wanted to short it… I told them NO…. I explained to them that most of the time, such intervention will not be one time… it will be in a few series of attack…. to hit 79.50 is possible… As I am writing now… it is trading at 79.20 Look at the daily chart… from RIGHT to LEFT (our V3Go way) and you will be able to see the pattern IF you are seriously wanting to take a SHORT Position in it… Disclaimer applied. Kelvin Han
Oct
21
2011
Why Greece Can’t Drop The EuroPosted by admin in Financial News, Forex Analysis, Interesting Videos, Market Analysis
Oct
16
2011
Jim Rogers Also Long In USD Because of Pessimism Back Then….Posted by admin in Forex Analysis, Interesting Videos2 months ago, I was already calling people to watch for a rebound in the US Dollar (aka Greenback) soon.. 1 month ago, I called for BUY on the US Dollar, by calling for sell in EURO and AUD while long in the Swiss Franc and Canadian. During this period, many people were calling or labelling me as a fool of FOREX… Last Week, we saw the Dollar Index (2months ago) rose from 73.75 to 80.43. and AUD plunged down from 1.06 to 0.94! Now many people are asking if this is a good time to buy into the Dollar… I told them this…. “I am booking profit for now and staying out… the market is getting unstable again in my opinion whereas many are starting to think it is safe to go in…” Disclaimer Kelvin Han
Oct
14
2011
We are looking at Profit Taking to start from today…. STI or HK may lose 50 and 500pts respectively….(Disclaimer)Posted by admin in Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Kelvin's True Life Trading Stories, Market AnalysisGood Morning Everyone, We are looking at profit taking in the market from today onwards. We have booked all our Long Positions in the market YESTERDAY and will be SHORTING the market today. We have put in shorts on SIMSCI, NIKKEI, EURO and US Crude and will be hitting the Hang Seng Futures market too.We are shorting the market because we believe technically, too many people are turning their position and usually this will bring the Big Boys to book and take advantage of the Retail. But this could only be a short stint wave as overall, the market is poised for more upside in the coming future. This is a great opportunity to book profit, get back the Ammo Bullets (capital) and wait for the market to hit a support before entering into the market again.
We will be putting up CHARTS to explain why we are shorting today… in a short while… Disclaimer applied. Kelvin Han
Oct
13
2011
We are BOOKING Profits For All Our Long Positions Today…. Regardless… (Disclaimer)Posted by admin in Comments and Feedback, Events and Advertisements, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Market Analysis, V3Go Chart
Good Morning Everyone, Today being Thursday, I am advising my friends and graduates to book profit against the strength of the overnight Dow which rose 102pts on further positive news from the Europe counter parties. Based on 16years of trading experiences, my expectation of today’s market will be…… most likely the market will be luring retail traders into the it with some explosive, fast & furious intraday movement which may tingle the impetuous of them and jumped into the market without a lucid plan. It is very interesting to see people using VIX Indicator to trade and invest; buying when the figure is DOWN while selling when the figure is UP… but interestingly, the market goes UP after the selling from the market… The Question is; if everyone is SELLING…. who the HELL is doing the BUYING??? Do they actually know the well known VIX Indicator is calling for A Sell…. or they REALLY know HOW to use the VIX Indicator…?? *smile* For me…. I am urging all my friends and graduates to book their Long today…. and wait and sit on the fence…. Bulll will say cheong (Up) And put my Loot (Short) gun on the table and watch…. because if the Dow ended at DH, things will be easier but the Dow again from 2.30am came off… may change the movement a bit…. Sitting on the fence with my hands below my thigh will be a good idea… I am no Genius I have openly shared my calls and thoughts during the selling last week.. while people triggering cut loss into the market… I was BOTTOM picking the market… it is all based on experiences in the market and more importantly… i stick to my Gameplan…. As mentioned in my classes and in the recent blog entries…. Buying a market on a UPtrend with a stop loss vs Buying a market on a Support with the same stop loss figure, is the SAME thing. But buying on a Uptrend, may face a higher chance of people booking profits against me since a Uptrend is made up of Positive Days .. right? May everyone have a great trading day ahead! ps: The reason why we kept updating Futures movement into the blog is because we want people to know how to use them to trade better. If you wish to know more, do join our class and you will definitely understand how and why we can always be AHEAD of the market… because Big Boys are always using the Futures market as their base and guide… Contact us if you want to join our next class – Sales@V3Go.com For FREE Market Emails = Technical@V3Go.com Kelvin Han From www.cnnfn.com: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – A broad rally lost steam during the final minutes of trading, but stocks still ended sharply higher Wednesday as investors welcomed the latest plan to recapitalize European banks. “We’re continuing to see a shift in investor sentiment,” said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. “Last week, it seemed like the sky was falling and there was no end in sight. Now, there’s a perception that Europe will come up with a TARP-like backstop for European banks.” “We still don’t have a concrete plan, but it seems like officials have more of a sense of urgency and are talking about credible solutions, which is exactly what the market needs,” said Hogan. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 102 points, or 0.9%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 12 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 22 points, or 0.8%. Earlier in the session, all three indexes were up about 2%, and the the Dow briefly turned positive for the year. —————– Why Hong Kong Reversed Yesterday? From Dow Jones News: HONG KONG (Dow Jones)–Hong Kong shares ended higher Wednesday, extending the local market’s winning streak to five sessions, spurred by gains in China’s A-share market due to expectations Beijing will ease its policy stance. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 187.87 points, or 1.0%, to 18,329.46 after trading between 17,804.56 and 18,411.77 during the session. Market volume totaled HK$76.79 billion, down from HK$83.60 billion Tuesday. Over the past five sessions, the index has risen 12.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index ended Wednesday up 3.0% at 2,420.00, while the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 3.5% to 1,027.06. “Clear evidence in a couple of months’ time that inflation has peaked is likely to prompt a loosening of (China’s) policy,” wrote Mark Williams, Chief China Economist at Capital Economics. On Friday, China is due to release September’s inflation data, including the much-watched consumer price index. Other market watchers said a loosening of monetary policy in China may still be some way off. “The potential of bad debt forming in the banking system remains the most daunting challenge facing the Chinese economy,” said Castor Pang, research head at Core Pacific – Yamaichi. “A credit loosening would only spell more troubles in the future…At best, China won’t tighten further, but talk about a loosening is premature.” Pang added that 18,400, the benchmark index’s down gap on Sept. 22, is the HSI’s near-term technical resistance. The HSI’s intraday peak Tuesday was 18,456 and 18,411 Wednesday.
Oct
07
2011
Market Rallied Strongly But Take Partial Profit As It Rise Will Be Wise…Posted by admin in Comments and Feedback, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Kelvin's True Life Trading Stories, Market AnalysisGood Morning Everyone, Yesterday, the Hong Kong market rallied more than 900pts while STI rose 74pts on rather good trading volume which surprised and anger many retails (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1157635/1/.html) as most of them may have reduced their positions when they witnessed the catastrophic selling on Tuesday and Wednesday which many brokers actually urged their clients to cut/reduce their positions in order to prevent further losses. Honestly, if the traders are contra players, I can understand and agreed on the motion as low can go lower but if the investors are in long term positioning on good counters like Wilmar, SIA, DBS, UOB or even Genting SP, I seriously don’t really see the logic of cutting those positions on reports or analysis by local or foreign houses. Yes, the downgrades may be a signal to inform value investors to take note but since the word is INVESTMENT; then one should actually revised the entire situation and assess their portfolio. It is like buying a house for 1.5mil during economical booming time which will definitely be a tab more expensive than usual… but because of a down turn in economy and some property broker came to your house and inform you that due to their own analysis, your home is only worth 900K now… honestly, how many of us will actually sell the house, the next day? Or actually dip into your bank account and start to see if you have the capability to INVEST into another house instead since the price have went down such a fair bit? The above application is meant for good stocks which the listed companies have solid fundamentals, good business prospect and growth could have dipped but still on going… on the 4th of Oct, DBS lost 5.97% in a single day on 11,600 lots of traded volume… and many were calling for the end of the world on this counter but yesterday, we saw it recovering more than 3.5% on 7,200lots of traded volume, covering up the movement instead on much lesser volume aka effort! I can literally feel the pain of those who cut their positions below $11.00…. low of $10.81…. Yesterday closed at $11.27…. Regardless, it is pointless to cry over spilled milk but I wish to remind many that before we can enjoy a RALLY, a SELLING must be around first… Why??? The common reason given; Due to profit taking by people therefore bargain hunters re-enters in the market for value investment…..To me, the above is CRAP! It is pure BULLSHXT!The real reason to me is; DUE to Short selling, inserting fears to people via mass Media, traders primarily retails will dump and sell awaytheir holdings on irrational behaviour during this period and giving the Big Boys abundance of good shares at really cheap prices against their par/fair value. Thatswhy we saw the same updraft movement with much lower volume aka effort instead. This trick have been used over and over again since 19th Century…
Let’s recall back in 2009 when our government funds dumped their US stocks portfolio and registered a huge lost which enraged many….
AUD have rebounded after it hit 0.94 and now treading towards 0.98 while CHF hovers around 0.9200 area…. I shared with my value friends that we should prepare for our next trade on CHF as most likely, we are going to see 0.9400 next week…. For the Stock Index Futures position, we are looking to unwind them bit by bit as the market strengthens today… For our Stock positions, we are looking at more upside on the Blue Chips today and most probably will see the 2nd and 3rd liners coming into play today or next week… But NOTE: If the market do continue to move up… take note of Wednesday, 12th of October 2011… this might be a great day to unwind more position… Of course, nothing is 100% and by now, you might have realised that we are always calling and forecasting much earlier than most and never provide hindsight views/calls. Our different perspective and controversial analysis of the market usually will make new readers confused and disorientated but the eventual proven results/outcome do usually convince them by the end of the day. Alright, today is Friday therefore I am going to stop here… May everyone have a great trading day today and may the market continues its UPSIDE until next week Wednesday… Cheers! Disclaimer applied. Kelvin Han
Oct
05
2011
Forex Positions Closed. Stops Triggered. Will Value Invest Once Signals Returns Again.Posted by admin in Comments and Feedback, Commodities, Events and Advertisements, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Kelvin's True Life Trading Stories, Market AnalysisGood Morning My Readers, By late evening, I know that our AUD and CHF position will be good as I see the Asian markets tumbling like rocks off the cliff as HK lost more than 3.7% while Singapore 90pts! (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1157205/1/.html) And indeed, by 1030pm, AUD hits below 0.9400 and CHF hits 0.9260!Although my target for CHF was 0.9400 level too but I think this run is enough thus, I gave the advice to my friends who were online with me, on SKYPE and WhatsApps and they closed ALL their position diligently and were happy as compared to the day time.
Of course, during the day, we booked some profit on HK and SIMSCI as it surged up in the first 60mins but end of the day, we gave back the winnings as the markets slumped. This clearly shows the market is still very bearish in sentiment and with Rumours of Morgan Stanley having the chance of being Lehman Brothers the 2nd… that hits the market hard and fast. During Lunch yesterday, someone asked me this question: “Kel, honestly and bluntly, where you think HK will hit first before it can rebound?”“Bro, honestly, HK may have to hit this level….. 16050 area before we can see a Rebound as that’s the 61.8% Retracement level between 2008 Low and 2010 High. With the current level of 16500s…. I am afraid that we may see more bloodbath in the afternoon…. but should the market goes there, I will be interested to look at it again.” I replied…
True enough, the market really took the selling and we saw stops after stops were triggered and HK Future hit a low of 16139 before a recovery towards the end and closed at 16257. From the above, you can see that I am very honest with calls and our winnings and losses. I am no GOD nor the perfect trader… I do have times that my calls go off tangent but if anyone is ask me what’s the sentiment of the market now…. I can summarize it in 3 sentences… “If you are Bearish, you will stay Bearish…. For me, I am in the Category 3…. I am still BULLISH… although I know many have turned Bear after these few days of raid by the Bears…. I am not stubborn but I have weathered such storms many times and I know the repercussion and changes of camps of people during this period… the nearest example is March 2011, the Japan Earthquake or tab further will be 2009 Dow’s bottoming out in March. Buy LOW, Sell High; is the Holy Grail for Trading and Investing but to buy at Low, is the definitely at the worst of time whereby everyone is selling… it will be tough and very mental challenging… and most important, you may incur losses after losses shall you choose to cut at important/technical level which you think is proper Money Management which I do agree to a certain extent especially one’s pocket is not deep enough. That’s why before I gave my advice to my friends who decided to short AUD and Long CHF on my advice, I told them that if this trade do come out good.. they will see a fall in their stocks portfolio… there will be 3 possible thing they can do…. 1. AUD/CHF Trade goes well but Stocks fall and they will get upset… People who know me well will understand what I am doing and they know that there is no perfect trade… so they took up the AUD/CHF trade and bought little stocks during this period… and although they saw their stock portfolio coming off.. they know that their Currency Trade is good enough to give them the extra bullets to buy into VALUE stocks later. I believe Warren Buffet sees the same thing… With the Dow doing a strong recovery towards the last 45mins, tells alot of the Boys are accumulating at the bottoms while instigating selling at the top. BUT in a Bearish sentiment market, any upside will not last therefore I am not surprised to see SELLING in the first 60mins of the market today. But if the market can hold the forte and stay above their Opening Price by more than 1% by the end of today, it will be good sign… if not, traders or investors… just do take note that we will need more time to see an upside in the market. Remember, doing VALUE investing is good BUT Risk and Money Management is more important, don’t it affect your life and family… if you are not sleeping soundly then you know you have over traded… bring it down to a comfort zone and get your life back! Have a great day ahead! Disclaimer applied. Kelvin Han |
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