Are you going to SHORT BiG TiMe today? I am not advicing that!
Posted by admin in Comments and Feedback, Commodities, Events and Advertisements, Forex Analysis, Futures Pick, Market Analysis, Trivial of LifeA very good morning to everyone,
By 6.30am this morning, I already received 12 SMS from my friends, starting from 11pm yesterday, seeking and asking for advices about today’s market as Dow cracked down with more than 200points, the biggest selloff since 30th of Oct 2009.
The reasons for the selling were a handful; from Obama Adminstration annoucing a proposal to increase regulation of the nation’s biggest financial firms, including limiting the size and scope of their trading operations, to lingering worries about China’s lending practice which indirectly hit the commodities and the broader market as the country is noted to be, one of the primary key buyer. An unexpected rise in the US Jobless Claims and a drop in the manufacturing activity also gave traders the triggering reason to dump shares.
Honestly, to me, being a more optimistic trader in this current situation, I see the above reasons as good riddance for us to purchase shares at a cheaper price/bargains instead. My views.
(1) Obama is doing the right thing. It is like giving a child an antibiotic injection even though he/she is not sick at the moment. The child will be upset as it is going to be painful when the needle goes into the flesh but the child will be grateful, in the later stage, that such measurement was taken.
(2) Sugar, Crude, Copper etc have risen to new high over the last 12-18months while the global economies slammed into recession over credit issues. China being one of the biggest buyer of commodity is doing the right thing to be concern about their expenditure as inflation and deflation will be the last thing any country wish to suffer on. But nonetheless, with the ever increasing human population in China and the unmatched consistency of its GDP numbers since 1998, China will still be in demand for these commodities. So a pullback will actually give one a good reason to absorb for the next wave. As what Commodity King, Jim Rogers say, commodities,in logically sense, have only one direction, and that is UP.
(3) Jobless Claim increment = there are people still unemployment and the Dow is trading at 10,500 level. Since 90% of global leaders, economists and analysts are expecting 2010 to 2011 will see reasonable growth in GDP in their own country, I cannot see why we are concern about this residual jobless claim figure during this period. We are just recovering from a bout of serious fever/flu thus one cannot expect the body to run 10s/100m right? We need time to let people return back to society but we can see that the Dow already move from 6500 to 10,500… so I really wonder, WHERE will the Dow be when these people return back to employment force, doing their part in their contribution to the society/country’s growth?
I am expecting the Dow to recover to 11,715 by end of this year. Dow closed at 10,389 last night.
At the end of the day, because I am bullish of the market, it might seem that I am pretty biase towards each buying opportunity whenever there is a big correctional like last night. But evidentally, we have proven that it makes loads of sense to follow the major trend and reading the chart from RIGHT to LEFT than the conventional LEFT to RIGHT, have shown that we were consistently right in our calls.
As mentioned yesterday,
The pivotal point for the STI was 2888. Should the market fail to go above this figure, there will be selling and indeed, it happened.
As for today, I am not going to SELL once I see the market trades above the OP of today.
Instead, I am looking to buy stocks that I think will be a great time to load since the market will sell as expected. I expect the STI to open around 2786 to 2800 level. It closed at 2850.98, DAY LOW, yesterday (something I wished for yesterday). There is a first support at 2876 level. If the Index can recover above 2837 today, it will be a GREAT DAY to buy shares today. Please mark all these levels now.
Hang Seng didn’t go above 21312 yesterday despite the good China data and slammed down 400points instead. So one couldn’t have bought the call warrant. But for today, one can start to load on the call warrant IF they see HK testing 20261 first THEN rebound. It closed at 20743 yesterday. If not, no go for the time being.
Crude Oil failed to closed above the US$78/barrel level thus I didn’t give any buy calls on the commodities related stocks. As mentioned in the previous entry, there are 2 support level. One is US$77 and the other is around US$75. Last night, the Crude lost another US$1.72 to close at US$75.87, with a low of US$75.66. Using Conventional TA(Technical Analysis), there should be some support around US$75level. So I will be watching very closely on this market. Do regularly check your email inbox, for those who paid for the Crude Oil Pattern Sessions.
Dollaryen rockected to a high of 91.87 last night before dropping like a rock to 90.10 level on US economy weakness. Currently, it is indicating at around 90.20 level. No buying until you see it going above 91.30+ level.
With that, I wrapped up my expectation for today. In summation, as long as the stock/index is trading above their OP (Opening Price) of today, I am NOT SHORTing them.
Remember: Every Successful Transaction is between a willing BUYER vs a willing SELLER… If everyone is deem to be selling and there is a transaction made… who is BUYING????
As quoted by the market, trading is about using common sense but the problem is common sense is not as common in the market when trading is a concern. 
By 9.30am, I will be sharing some stocks that I think you can long for the next 1-2weeks for some short term profits. Refresh this blog regularly for today.
Cheers! Hope everyone make MORE MONEY!!!
ps: Since yesterday, we are receiving registration emails for our Real Life Trader SPECIAL Edition. Once we reach maximum capacity, we will cease registration. The invited trader will only share this 6.8million yen trade once.
Disclaimer apply as usual.
Kelvin Han
aka Trend Master
Originator of V3Go Mentoring Program
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