Did You Trade

Menunjukkan gejala meningkat sentimen di DOW. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 9193, LB 9047), Upside croc W%, Harga tutup di atas Diff R/L, tutup DH, gagal dalam Teori Peak. Downside: W% di ekstrem. Harapkan pasaran akan ambil keuntungan  sebelum ada Rally . Perhatikan DOW jika ia  dagang di atas 9097 (Diff R/L) atau di bawah 9047 (support).

   Menunjukkan gejala meningkat sentimen di NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10040, LB 9785), Harga tutup di atas Diff R/L, tutup di atas V3Go BC, Tertutup DH, gagal dalam Teori Peak. Downside: W% di ekstrem, Upside burung pipit W%. Harapkan akan ambil keuntungan sebelum ada Rally. Perhatikan NK jika di dagang di atas 9785.

 Menunjukkan gejala meningkat sentimen di HK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 20208, LB 19733), Harga tutup di atas Diff R/L, Tutup DH, gagal dalam Teori Peak. Downside: W% di ekstrem, Upside burung pipit W%. Harapkan keambilan keuntungan di perdagangan awal sebelum ada reli. Perhatikan HK jika ia dagang di atas 20176 (SC) atau di bawah 19733 (LB).

  Menunjukkan gejala meningkat sentimen di STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2558, LB 2504), Harga tutup di atas Diff R/L, tutup DH, Tertutup di atas 2 V3Go BC. Downside: W% di ekstrem, Upside burung pipit W%. Harapkan diambil keuntungan di perdagangan sebelum ada reli. Perhatikan STI jika dagangan di atas 2504 atau di bawah 2516 (SC).

CK

Sanggahan di pergunakan

Bullish sentiment on DOW. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 9193, LB 9047), Upside croc W%, Closed above Diff R/L, Closed at DH, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% at extreme. Expect profit taking b4 any rally can occur. Watch DOW if it trade 9097 (Diff R/L) or below 9047.

Bullish sentiment on NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10040, LB 9785), Closed above Diff R/L, Closed above V3Go BC, Closed at DH, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% at extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Expect profit taking before any rally. Watch NK if it trades above 9785.

Bullish sentiment on HK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 20208, LB 19733), Closed above Diff R/L, Closed at DH, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% at extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Expect Profit Taking in early trading before any rally. Watch HK if it trades above 20176 (SC) or below 19733 (LB).

Bullish Sentiment on STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2558, LB 2504), Closed above Diff R/L, Closed at DH, Closed above 2 V3Go BC. Downside: W% at extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Expect Profit Taking before any rally. Watch STI if it trades above 2504 or below 2516 (SC).

CK

Disclaimers Apply

Saya telah memberitahu dengan anda sekalian tentang pandangan  pengambilan keuntungan di seberang Asia. Walaupun Asia buka lebih rendah dan berdagang lebih rendah, lewat  makan siang, SIMSCI, STI dan HK melakukan kesembuhan menakjubkan dari dasar hari untuk menutup di ketinggian! WAH!

Sedikatakan di pos saya yang lebih awal, HK perlu berdagang di bawah 19863 untuk lebih lanjut downside tetapi Pasaran tidak sampai kesana, oleh karena itu rally masuk. Sejak semua pasar Asia kecuali TW (karena pasar pertama tutup) berakhir positif, oleh karena itu ada kesempatan baik bagi Dow Jones untuk berakhir positif nanti malam. Oleh karena itu, pedagang yang berfokus di pasar AS mungkin dapat mencari saham yang baik untuk beli saham mereka. Forex Traders mungkin mau mengambil kesempatan untuk menjual Yen sekalau ia trade di bawah OP (harga Buka). Menikmati hari minggu anda! Saya tahu saya akan menikmati… hehehe… CK

I was sharing with all of you at about noon regarding the profit taking across Asian. Despite opening lower and trading lower initially after lunch, both SIMSCI, STI and HK did a spectacular recovery from the low of the day to close at the high! WOW!

As mentioned in my earlier post, HK needs to trade below 19863 for further downside but it couldn’t hence the rally came in. Since all Asian markets except TW (since it is the first market to close) ended positive, hence there is a good chance for US market to end positive tonight. Therefore those traders who are focus on the US market may be able to look for good counters to long their counters. Forex Traders may want to take the opportunity to short the Yen futures once it is trading below the OP.

Enjoy your weekend!

I know I will… hehehe…

CK

Once again… TGIF!!!

My friends are meeting me for dinner… Hmmm… I can almost smell the seafood melting in my mouth now… *Slurp Slurp*

As mentioned this morning, Market did try to recover higher than OP before selling down on profit taking. It managed to recover from the low but are still trading below OP.

Trading game simple.

If you are short in the market, the market should recover above OP… PERIOD

If it did, means it is not ready, will it trade higher and gap up… Errr… I won’t know for sure…hahaha

Levels to watch for HK: 19980 (OP) and 19863 (SC). I shorted in the morning but my trailing profit got triggered. Now I’m waiting for my chance to either long or short…

Fickle minded???

Well may be… But at least I make profit right? *Wink*

CK

As expected, GBP and Eur did test the Diff R/L before coming off. Hence, we are right to stay off the market for a while.

Yen did break the Diff S/L (1.0555). Currently it is trading higher to “close the gap” and perhaps it may test the Diff S/L again. However, should it break OP again. More selling is likely to happen. After all, Fundmentally wise, USD seems to be strenghening which is reflected by the recent gains in the US market. Reports on talk of investment outflows from Japan while retreating against other risk-sensitive currencies may catalyse further gains on the dollar.

Once again, being a purely technical driven, price action dictates my course of action. If the news are “true”, Yen should weaken against the dollar by trading below its OP (1.0525).

Good Luck!

CK

Good Morning!

It’s Friday!

TGIF!!!

YIPPEEE!!!!

DOW posted spectacular gains last night, which fueled by positive earnings results from AT&T and Amazon. Last night marked the highest year for the year.

“Earnings are showing in many cases that companies are increasing their bottom lines with lower revenue, which means that corporate management is taking  responsible cost cutting steps to navigate the economic downturn,” said Michael Farr, president of money
manager Farr Miller & Washington; “this will prepare them to recover strongly on any economic upturn.”

Looks like positive sentiment is in the air.

Hence, I’m sure a lot of traders who didn’t held their position overnight is likely to bang tables while those who have endured the emotional upheaval of holding their position are celebrating right now.

So, Market Psychology wise… What’s likely to happen?

The moment the market opens, CHEONG AH!!! (Hokkien: Run for it!)

Hence, if the market rally, it is expected. Note that Asian markets are likely to gap up, which already priced in the gains in Dow. However, average investors wouldn’t think likewise and would just jump in to buy. If the market doesn’t edge higher, something is wrong. Who is selling? If it breaks OP, what do you think will happen to those who bought today? Lose $$$ right? Good chance, profit taking will happen in the morning.

Of cos, I wouldn’t know what’s the extent of the profit taking. All I know is since today is Friday, many investors may be reluctant to hold positions overnight and may want to reduce their holdings so as to enjoy their “holiday”.

The key is OP. Hence if your counters are trading above OP, good for you. If not, May be it is prudent to reduce your position.

After all, Trading is all about capital preservation. He who has the “ammo” to fight the protracted war will have the last laugh!

CK

I’m not sure whether the traders in Indonesia are able to trade Asian Futures like SIMSCI or Taiwan Futures. Hmmm…. Perhaps I shall take a look at the FX market where there are more participants

Yen Futures (Yen/USD): Watch if it trades below 1.0555 (Diff S/L)

Good chance GBP and EUR futures are likely to test the Diff R/L and come off. I would prefer to wait first before taking futher action.

Back to Asian Equities.

Watch out for HK. It is a buy above Diff R/L 19657. However based on W%, It is likely to experience some sell down before any upside can happen. To long above Diff R/L is not wrong but the risk is higher since it is against William % (W%).

That’s all folks!

Good Luck trading tomorrow!

CK

I was struggling this afternoon at about 1230 pm whether to suggest any potential stock pick on Indonesian market

Reasons for my hesitation:

1) I’m not trading Jakarta stock since I don’t have an Indonesian brokering account. Moreover I only trade futures. Hence I don’t want to create the perception that since I’m not trading anyway, hence I can be relaxed in my posting. After all, I’m not going to lose any money from putting in these calls, which I find it rather unethical.

2) I have total blackout of how the stock is performing real time. Whatever data I have is EOD (End of Day data) from Chart Nexus.

I decided not to go ahead especially since I’m not aware of the opening price (OP).

Like the saying, market is always there but frankly to ask you to buy stocks tomorrow carry higher risk. After all, you are buying at a higher price tomorrow when you could have purchase your counter at OP + 1 bid.

Anyway my pick based on Diff:

Bank International: Good short if it opens below 415. Short only when it trades below OP by 1 bid.

Bank Negara: Good short if it opens below 1780. Short only when it trades below OP by 1 bid.

Darma Henwa: This counter looks like it is consolidating. Good long if it can closed above 205 on tomrrow’s trading. I suggest to just wait for tmr closing first. Those who are a bit more aggressive may want to consider to long this counter if it trades above 205.

Energi Mega: As per Darma Henwa. Looks like it is finding a support. But it would not be a long unless it closes above 355.

Just in case you may wonder why I didn’t pick those runners/winners today e.g. Aneka, Timah, etc.  My reasoning: If the stock has already run, good chance that the big boys are in position and perhaps retail crowds are already in position, waiting to take profit. Of cos, the stock may carry on to move assuming the fundamentals are strong. Just that the risk to buy at higher price is higher.

Everyone knows to make $$$ in the market is to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low. So isn’t it a good opportunity to buy stocks who are already in a downtrend. Of cos, I’m not a contrarion. I will only buy when the stocks is showing signs of recovery. Hence I shall pick those stocks that are on a downtrend and are finding a support based on Diff to long and those stocks that are on a uptrend and are finding a resistance  to short.

I’ve mentioned that Hang Seng Futures (HK) is likely to break below Diff S/L (19322) and sell down based on the chart formation.

Well… I was wrong. SHUCKS!!!

CK bei zhun (Hokkien: Not accurate) Waste my time reading the blog… (#@&$(… blah blah blah

But does it really matter??? Cos I’m not losing money right? Once again, Diff Technique (part of KH techniques) can’t tell me with 100% certainty whether the market is going to end positive or negative. I’m not God nor a Big Boy there’s no way I can control how the market moves. However, I’m just an investigator… constantly looking out for signs of Big Boy (Institution) in play…

My game plan is simple: Follow the Big Boys (aka the 10% that is consistently making $$$ in the market)… Of cos, then your next question will be “How?” Sorry to disappoint… I can only tell base on probability… unless I personally know a Big Boy myself (In that case, I will forgo all technical… If Big Boy buy, I will buy else I will sell… right?)

Why is it a better short than long?Let’s look at HK when it closed yesterday…

KH Techniques aside… Simply on the chart patterns, My risk to short is from Today’s OP price 19387 to the Day High (DH) of 21st Jul 19657. But where is my potential loss… From Today’s OP to potentially Day Low (DL) of 13th Jul right? So simply base on risk and reward, it would be more prudent to short than to long. Of cos, does it necessary means that the market will SURE to go down? Obviously not as the market has proven to us this morning.

Trading is about managing odds. We trade when the odds of winning are high but doesn’t mean that it will definitely win right. Hence, there is always a need for us to put in our stop loss. At the end of the day, price action rules. I, for one, have lost dearly trying to fight the market. Yes, Someday I do win i.e. Sell at DH, Buy at DL. Do I feel good? EXTREMELY But at the end of the day, I realise I lose more trying to outsmart the market. That’s when I realise… What is REALLY Important? To make max profit daily or to make consistent profit? Of cos it would be good to milk the market for all its worth but seriously… How many of us have the emotional tenacity and capital to do that???

Clue 1: 21st Jul closing price (CLP)

Notice that the closing on 21st July is lower than the close of 20th July despite breaking the high of 20th July? Am I right to say that the whole world knows that it is a buy when it break DH and a sell when it break DL?  So why is it that the market can come down despite everyone being bullish on HK? Hmmm… Who is selling? Notice that 21st Jul ended off below its Opening Price (OP)? Am I right to say that whoever bought at the DH and Closing of 20th Jul aren’t feeling that comfortable?

Clue 2: 22th Jul CLP

When HK broke previous DH of 21st Jul but then sell down to below DL of 21st Jul, notice how fast the selling is… How many stops are triggered especially when HK did edge up higher upon opening in early trading? Sometime is not right already. Obviously there are people pressing down the market? Are they big boys manipulating the market so that HK ran today or simply investors getting frightened and therefore cutting their losses? I wouldn’t be able to tell u that. All I know is there are signals of selling and it make sense in terms of profit and loss to short

So conclusion

Yup. It a good short if it breaks Diff S/L. But too bad, it didn’t. So What do I do? Chase the market? Of cos, the beauty of KH Techniques is that it will give you an indication when the market sentiment has changed. Instead of buying at the lower band (LB) of my Uptrend (UT) KH Channel (19605), I chose to buy at 19658 (1 point above my Diff R/L) and have taken profit at 19771. Why do I take profit so fast? Didn’t CK kept saying have to let profit run? Right… But I should hold my position on my short side right? Since the odds of winning is higher on the short side than long side.

All these are covered in KH Mentoring Programme. Teaching techniques are easy… Everyone can do that… But truly understanding the psychology behind the buyers and sellers and thereby taking a calculated risk is priceless! Technique may fail but Market Psychology will not!!! Simple. Why? Cos Human Behavior doesn’t change! Therefore, market kept making the same pattern again and again regardless of time and place!

Hahaha… Guess I’ve gone a bit excited… Got to take a break now… HK needs to stay above 19605 for futher upside. Should i failed to stay above 19549 by 2 pm time, do expect more selling to come.

Cheers!

CK