Did You Trade

Buying interest on DOW. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 9307, LB 9136), Closed above Diff R/L, Change in ROC, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: Long Upside Tail, Downside croc W%, W% near extreme. Watch DOW if it trades above 9136 or below 9097 (Diff R/L).

Strong buying towards end of Trading for NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10265, LB 10115), Closed above Diff R/L, Positive ROC, Failed V3Go SC, Closed above V3GO BC, Closed near DH above Prev DH, Upside croc maiden crossing W%.  Downside: W% near extreme. Watch NK if it trades above 10210 (SC) or below 10115 (LB).

Support on STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2661, LB 2607), Upside croc maiden crossing W%, Closed at DH. Downside: SHP on series of Up Trend, Closed below Diff R/L, W% near extreme. Watch STI if it trades above 2621 (SC) or below 2607 (LB)

CK

Disclaimer Apply

Presence of selling activity on DOW. Upside: Closed near OP. Downside: Closed below Diff R/L, SHP formation on Uptrend, W% near extreme, Downside croc maiden crossing W%. Watch Dow if it trades below 9021 (SC) or above 9065 (BC).

Signs of distribution on NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10240, LB 9985). Downside: Long Upside Tail, Failed 1 V3Go BC, Closed below V3Go SC, BHP on series of Uptrend, Closed below Diff S/L, Downside croc maiden crossing W%. Watch NK if it trades above 10115 (SC) or below 10040 (Diff S/L).

signs of selling on HK. Upside: Hole Theory, Closed above Diff S/L. Downside: Downside TSC (UB 20252, LB 19630), Downside croc maiden crossing W%. Watch HK if it trades above 20252 or below 20072 (Diff S/L).

Sellng pressure on STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2674, LB 2613), Closed above Diff S/L. Downside: Closed below Diff R/L, Downside croc maiden crossing W%, Change in ROC, Peak Theory. Watch STI if it trades below 2613.

CK

Disclaimer Apply

Potential trend reversal on DOW. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 9203, LB 9071), Closed at Diff R/L, Long Downside Tail. Downside: W% near extreme, Upside sparrow W%, Change in ROC, Peak Theory, SHP on long Up trend. Watch DOW if it trades above 9207 (Diff R/L) or below 9083 (SC).

Signs of profit taking on NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10205, LB 9945), Closed above Diff R/L, Postive ROC. Downside: W% near extreme, Upside sparrow W%, Long Upside Tail, SHP formation on Long Up Trend. Watch NK if it trades above 10155 (SC) or below 10065 (BC).

Strong Buying interest on HK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 20938, LB 20389), Upside croc maiden crossing W%, Closed above Diff R/L, Long upside bar, Positive ROC, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% near extreme. Watch HK if it trades above 20389.

Strong Buying interest on STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2677, LB 2609), , Closed above Diff R/L, Long upside bar, Positive ROC, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% near extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Watch STI if it trades above 2609.

CK

Disclaimers Apply

I’m pretty certain by now that those who have been faithfully following the blog are thinking what “crap” CK will be spouting… again..

He said this afternoon market is likely gonna go sideways.

He said last night that there might be profit taking… Ya right?

But none of this really came true… Oh… May be HK did sell off slightly but pls, only 100 points as compared to 400 points gain above OP?

blah… blah… blah…

I don’t really blame you…

Most traders are already disillusioned especially attending so many trading seminars, learning “sure win” technique but in reality, they are still losing money. In the end, instead of trusting on themselves that they are capable of sound decision, they decided to toss their votes for “instant guru” that will provide a “trading plan” for them…. AND hopefully… for the last time… it REALLY works…

I was once in their shoes… and once did became very reliant on my mentor, Mr Kelvin Han.

“Kel, Can buy or not? Market surging”

“Kel, I wanna cut loss… Market like not right?”

Kel… this… Kel… That… If I make $$$, I will never really bother to thank him from the bottom of my heart. But if I lose $$$, Kel will become my target board for live artillery bombardment….!!!

But seriously… In reality… Is Kel or any “Guru” 100% accurate in their prediction on a daily basis?

I’m sure you know the ans by now.

We trade only on higher odds of winning… Sad to say HK didn’t provide that level of confidence on the long side. Yes, it does hurt to miss a run… But on the hindsight, how many times I lose $$$ just because I DEFINTELY must catch all market runners?

Perhaps, this is a learning phase that all traders who aspired to be successful professional trader must go through.

My View (If you are willing to hear me out… hehehe)

1) The buying came in fierce before lunch. Any reasons? Oh… Hopes that China Mobile and Oil Giant CNOOC will be listed in China??? Errr… Is that really a very good reason for the crazy buying in the afternoon? Think about it?

2) Market is defintiely in a state of euphoria – Uncles & Aunties who never traded stocks in their lives are beginning to dump their savings into stock hoping to make a killing. Literally everyone is excited to enter into the market regardless of the fundamentals of the economy or on the stocks itself. Any slight price fall is an indication for the retailers to buy on bargain.

3) If the market is really bullish and the whole world is grabbing stocks by the dozens, my question is who is selling to them? Am I right to say if you ask any passerby to sell the stocks now since it might correct down in the near future, most likely they will give you “Ya right” look or even scold you for being “black heart”? In other words, no retailers would be wiling to sell their holdings unless they see more than 50% return on their investment. So if the retailers, in general, aren’t willing to sell at this stage in time. Really… Who is selling?

To end off… Kel shared with us something today which is very adept:

“Reflexivity is, in effect, a two-way feedback mechanism in which reality helps shape the participants’ thinking and the participants’ thinking helps shape reality in an unending process in which thinking and reality may come to approach each other but can never become identical. Knowledge implies a correspondence between statements and facts, thoughts and reality, which is not possible in this situation. The key element is the lack of correspondence, the inherent divergence, between the participants’ views and the actual state of affairs. It is this divergence, which I have called the “participant’s bias,” which provides the clue to understanding the course of events. That, in very general terms, is the gist of my theory of reflexivity.”

Note that SIMSCI, TW and HK futures are expiring end of this week

Cheers!

CK

Good afternoon,

I lost some money today. Yup! KH Techniques are not 100%.

But am I emotionally beaten… No, Why should I?

I shorted HK when it was below OP this morning, it went down to below lower band (LB) of Uptrend (UT) channel but shooting straight pass OP to create a new high.

Why didn’t I take profit when it was at the low? Or better still… Why didn’t I turn long at OP + 1 (Buy based on KH Diff and KH Channel)? Simple.

Firstly, the profit to risk and indicators (More towards Bear) made sense for me to trail my profit downwards. When it break above OP, I didn’t turn long cos of the indicators: I was just uncomfortable.

Was I wrong? Yup. But does it really matter, since my capital is protected?

So whether today is gonna be “roller coaster ride” (i.e. swing up and down) or Sky rocketing Day (i.e. all the way up)… Seriously I won’t know… All I know is that there is euphoria in the market: It has reached a state whereby everyone even the aunties and uncles at the void deck began asking about what stocks to buy, issuing blank cheques to their broker for fear of missing the bull run.

Hmmm…. If everyone is buying, who is selling then?

Enjoy your lunch!

CK

Buying interest on DOW. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 9209, LB 9070), Closed above Diff R/L, Closed near DH, Failed Peak Theory. Downside: W% at extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Expect profit taking in early trading. Watch DOW if it trades above 9097 (Diff R/L) or below 9070 (LB)

Signs of Profit Taking on NK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 10280, LB 10005), Closed above Diff R/L, Downside: W% near extreme, Upside sparrow W%, Long upside tail. Expect profit taking in early trading. Watch NK if it trades above 10005 (LB)

Potential trend reversal on HK. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 20639, LB 20101), Closed above Diff R/L. Downside: W% at extreme, Downside croc maiden crossing W%, Chang e in ROC.  Watch HK if it trades below 20101

Buying interest on STI. Upside: Upside TSC (UB 2619, LB 2556), Closed above Diff R/L, Closed near DH. Downside: W% at extreme, Upside sparrow W%. Expect profit taking in early trading. Watch STI if it trades above 2556.

CK

Disclaimer Apply

My Answer: Neither… But If you really insist, I would say the Bear had a slight advantage over the Bull towards the closing.

Let’s review. As per my earlier posting, I was expecting HK to gap down, which it didn’t despite NK coming off from its high. HK open 2 points lower after lunch and recover immediately, likely due to SIMSCI and Shanghai trading near the high. However the initial gain after lunch was short lived and HK began to go sideways, testing OP several time before closing slightly below OP.

Let’s review all the markets.

1) All except HK and TW closed above OP

2) SIMSCI and STI, being the last market to close, both ended near the high

Hence, the Asian markets are mixed about their outlook of US market tonight. Since SIMSCI and STI close near the high, I do not expect US market to end off too far off below OP. There is a good likelihood of selldown in early trading before recovering near to OP. Since the markets aren’t giving me a clear signal, I would expect US market to be choppy in today’s trading.

So what’s the game plan tomorrow? Seriously… it all depends on how US market performs. Everyone is expecting a pull back first before further rally.

Could it be tonight?

hmm….

CK

Did you trade?

This is the question I love to ask my graduates in the morning.

Cos if you don’t, then the question to ask is why? Is it a conscious decision or are you acting out of fear?

Why fear the market when you are prepared to “invest a certain amount of $$$”?

Of cos to be truthful, I was, like most, wonder “When will Asian markets pull back? The rally has been on going for toooooo long. Surely it had to pull back right?”

Oh my, the moment I harbor such thought, my internal alarm starts blaring! “Dear CK, are you putting your views in the market or are you listening and following faithfully to the price action?”

Taking the example of HK:

Reasons to long: 1) Upside TSC, 2) Closed above Diff R/L

Reasons to short: 2) Open below V3Go SC, 2) W% near extreme

Hence, my odds to win on either the long or short side are almost the same i.e. 50-50.

Next, In terms of Risk to Reward, to long carries more risk than to short. Of cos, depending on your left, I could argue that the upside is more profitable than the downside given the heavy sell down since end 2007. But the question is are you prepared to risk almost 10000 points in HK in return for potential 40000 profit???

When I saw the regional market is trading higher than OP creating new high with the exception of TW, I’m prepared to go long since the odds of winning on the long side is favorable but I knew that market is likely to sell down first due to W%. Indeed, when market open, I longed at OP + 1 and it started coming off, but luckily it missed by stop loss level (-1V) by a few points before rallying up to almost (3V). Where do I take profit? Most will wonder… Sad to disappoint but I took profit at 266 despite the market edging another 100 plus points higher. Do I feel heart pain? I would be lying if I told you I’m not (Pls… I’m still human being) But looked at the market, the selling came in fast and furious just before lunch right, depicting fear in the market.

The bottomline is there is no right or wrong just trading on the higher odds of winning. How do I know the HK will not trigger my stop loss? Ans: I don’t know. If it triggers how? Cut loss and re-enter again at OP + 1. Simple. Why not short? Well, I had opportunities to and I used to flip my position like nobody biz… But I wanna limit myself from overtrading so I just chose the long side for the morning… and I was just lucky. I mean… Market could have slam down like nobody biz in the morning right? How would I know? Just that the odds of it happening is low since the Asian markets are generally bullish i.e. trading above OP.

So what’s my expectation of the market? Once again, my personal view have no bearance on the market (I mean… who am I right?.. hahaha)

1) Good chance of NK profit taking further leading to a possible gap down in HK.

2) HK likely to sell down further on sell stops triggered but should it recover… Good chance of HK testing 20500 level before coming off towards the close.

So what’s the game plan?

I shall wait for HK to break below OP to short for quick profit (i.e. if I see a support in the market, I will take my profit) if it doesn’t, I may consider to long above OP but OP – 1 will definitely be cut loss (Aggressive trader).

Good Luck!

CK

Dear everyone,

Hope you have enjoyed your weekend. I know I did. All thanks to my Diff graduates who have recently profited in futures trading, I had the privilege of having the best seafood ever at Bandar DJakarta, Ancol.

Ok… The golden question everyone is asking in their mind is…

So how?  Is the Global Credit Crunch over?

Instead of answering the question (Which I obviously won’t know for sure… duh!), Let me show you some statistics:

Let’s Analyse:

1) The start of the “Bear Run” is generally early October with the exception of Jakarta and Nikkei, which began showing sign of weakness and started selling from its all time high on 26 Feb 2007.

2) DOW lose 54% while Asian markets lose more than 60% from it’s all time high. However Asian markets recover by a larger percentage averaging above 70% from its all time low with the exception of Nikkei.

Ok… So what can we infer? The US market is the reason for the global credit crunch. Asian markets lose more in market value as compared to US market but recovered much more as compared to US counterparts. In order words, should US market recover back to its all time high value, Asian market is likely to break their all time high value by at least 30%. In laymen term, the recovery in Asian would likely be much more “spectacular” as compared to the bull run in 2007!

Let’s look at the individual index:

Starting with Dow, We can see that it is reaching a critical level soon (9247). If Dow retraced back to 8500 level  by next week and recovered back to test 9247, there is a good chance for DOW to test 10330 by September.

Looking at HK, Uptrend is almost confirmed since Market try to pull back to the critical level 18336 but now has lifted off.  Good chance of the HK coming off to test 18336 level before it recovers up to test the next level 21313.

NK is the weakest among Asian markets. Critical level to watch is 9700. It has to stay above this level by end of this month for further upside. Next level will be at 11055.

Similar to HK, recovery on STI has been stronger than its US counterparts, reflecting bullish sentiment in the region. STI may pull back within the next few weeks to near 2336 level before recovering up to 2680 level by September.

Jakarta has posted the most spectacular recovery among all Asian markets. It has more than double its market value from its all time low on the 28 Oct 08. 2173 is a critical level for Jakarta Index. It is likely to pull back to close 2100 level before seeing any further upside of 2380 by September.

Overall: I’m expecting pull back all across Asian markets before further rally. The extent of the pull back will determine whether the recessiion is indeed over. The past week has already given signs of the region coming back in force. Earning reports on major US market has been positive so far. Now all eyes are on the 3rd quarter results coming out in Oct. If the US non farm payroll and unemployment rates are doing well, Asian markets will not have any reasons to hold back its further upside.

CK

Disclaimer Apply

Emy says: